Ohio St -7 2.2% play
I’m a bit surprised this number is not over 10. The numbers say to play Michigan, but every time they step up in competition like this they get beat badly. I don’t think the outstanding ends from Michigan will be able to get pressure on CJ Stroud who has been getting the ball out of his hands to the best trio of WR’s in the country, and every time this Michigan secondary goes up against more athletic receivers, they are not able to hold up. Michigan’s numbers under Harbough have largely been a bit misleading as he likes to run it up against the weaker teams on the schedule. Still it appears Ohio State has a massive advantage with a +3.1 ypp differential compared to Michigan’s +1.7 differential. Ohio State has been dominant vs. the run, and unless Michigan comes out throwing on first down to surprise, he Buckeyes I think it could be a long day for the Wolverines at home. I believe the under is the way to go here with a total of 64.5 is a lot of points when you consider Harbough got back to the old power running days. They rank 104th in seconds per play, and I don’t think they have any wishes to get into a track meet. Their best bet to win this game is to create a slug fest. We have two teams that rank top 25 in 20+ plays allowed and at the end of the day these are still two very good defenses.
